How Long the Disney-YouTube TV Blackout Could Last: Analysis

YouTube TV subscribers waiting to watch ESPN might not want to hold their breath.

Disney and YouTube are nearly a week into a dispute about how much the media giant’s networks are worth. The Mouse House says the Google-owned TV service isn’t properly valuing its channels, while YouTube blames Disney for pushing rates it warns will lead to further price hikes.

Though carriage fights like this usually get resolved quickly, since they’re costly for both sides and frustrating for customers, history shows they can last for weeks — and, in rare cases, even years.

The longest blackout in modern TV history was a war between HBO and Dish that kept the premium cable channel sidelined for nearly three years, from November 2018 until July 2021.

“If it’s a month long, certainly, that’s a bigger deal,” said Alan Wolk, the cofounder of media research firm TVREV. He thinks there’s a chance that this Disney-YouTube TV staring contest could last weeks.

This is the third consecutive year that Disney’s networks have been off the air for an extended period on a major provider. Previously, the company’s channels were blacked out for nearly two weeks, in a 11-day dispute with Charter in 2023 and a 13-day standoff with DirecTV in 2024. It also had a blackout with Dish Network in 2022 that lasted just a few days.

Google’s YouTube TV has also engaged in hard-fought negotiations with Fox and NBCUniversal in the last few months. Unlike with Disney, however, YouTube TV reached short-term deal extensions that prevented its subscribers from losing their channels during negotiations.

This is only the second time since YouTube TV’s launch in 2017 that it’s been without a major media company’s channels. In December 2021, Disney and YouTube TV had a short stalemate that lasted less than three days, which is half the time of their current squabble.

However, Google’s live TV service has gone years without including specialty channels like the MLB Network, or offering regional sports networks like YES and SNY in New York or Monumental Sports Network in the Washington, DC, TV market.

Although industry analysts generally expect the showdown between Disney and YouTube TV to be resolved soon, each side has some leverage during this blackout.

The Mouse House controls competing pay-TV services Hulu + Live TV and Fubo, which have seen an uptick in demand since the blackout. It also allows sports fans to subscribe to the ESPN app directly, sidestepping services like YouTube TV.

YouTube TV may lose subscribers during this dispute, but it’s backed by tech giant Google, whose business won’t be materially affected by what happens here.

The showdown is “indicative of YouTube TV wielding increased bargaining power,” said analyst Ric Prentiss of Raymond James in a note. At $3.4 trillion, Google parent Alphabet is roughly 17 times the size of Disney.

Sports fans have been furious about the standoff keeping them from college football games, “Monday Night Football,” and NBA matchups with teams like the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers.

If the two sides can’t agree to terms by this weekend, when another slate of college football kicks off, it could provoke a fresh round of anger.