Breaking China’s Rare Earth Dominance Could Take a Decade: Goldman

China’s grip on rare earths is so strong that it could take the West a decade to challenge the East Asian giant’s dominance over the critical minerals, according to Goldman Sachs.

“China’s dominance is truly massive,” said Daan Struyven, Goldman’s co-head of global commodities research, in a podcast published Tuesday.

He pointed out that roughly 92% of global rare-earth refining and 98% of the magnets made from those materials take place in China. That gives Beijing enormous leverage in trade disputes and making the market highly sensitive to policy headlines.

Struyven’s comments come as President Donald Trump continues his trip across Asia, where he has signed a series of rare-earth agreements with Japan and several Southeast Asian nations aimed at diversifying supply chains.

Rare earth elements — a group of 17 metals — have become one of the world’s most geopolitically sensitive resources.

Their strategic importance has made them a persistent flash point in tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Despite their strategic value, the global rare earth market is minuscule — roughly 33 times smaller than copper by total production value — yet the minerals are crucial to defense systems and advanced semiconductors.

Western governments have pledged billions of dollars in recent years to rebuild domestic rare-earth capacity, but Goldman’s Struyven cautions that progress will be slow.

“It’s going to take years to build up independent supply chains in the West,” he said, adding that it would take about 10 years to build a mine and about five years to build a refinery.

Trump is expected to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday in South Korea, where rare earths could emerge as a key discussion point.

Beijing expanded export controls on the minerals earlier this month, with new restrictions set to take effect on November 8 — just days before a 90-day trade truce with Washington expires.

“Ultimately, the final contours of any US-China trade deal still have to be signed off by the two respective presidents,” Struyven said.

“And I don’t think this issue is going to go away anytime soon,” he said.